John Yiannis Paparistodemou
The Development of a Sustainable National Energy Plan for Cyprus
Cyprus is an island situated in the eastern Mediterranean and faces the problems of any isolated energy market. In line with the Future Climate Project this project's goal is to develop a long-term energy plan up to 2050, which Cyprus is currently lacking, to provide technology based solutions to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to a sustainable level. The main objectives of this research project were to identify what the current energy system was composed of – both on the demand and supply side, where current policies stand, which energy sectors are the worst emitters, and which are the most promising and effective technologies. Based on these findings, the preparation of a long-term national energy plan up to 2050 was suggested. This plan provides technological based solutions to keep GHG emissions at a sustainable level.
Meetings were held with a number of government bodies and energy related organisations, providing a comprehensive overview and the gathering of up to date data. The methodology used for the development of the energy plan is backcasting scenario planning, where a desired target is set in the future rather than being derived. The findings indicate that the main sectors for change are the transport, buildings and energy production. Cyprus' dependence on oil for almost all its energy requirements puts it in a very disadvantaged and vulnerable position. Being part of the EU, it has the opportunity to profit from a switch to a more diversified and cleaner energy mix.
The power sector's capacity will increase substantially, as many energy requirements of transport and housing will switch to electricity. Simultaneously, it will have to be almost entirely decarbonised through a shift to natural gas in combination with carbon capture and storage, and a larger percentage of renewable energy sources. A large percentage of heating and cooling can be met through local production and efficiency improvements to buildings. Aggressive changes in the transport sector are required through the development of alternative methods of transport and the upgrade of the road fleet to low emitting and electric vehicles.