Timothy .S. Mbasuen
Peak Oil and Climate Change: How Prepared is Nigeria?
Peak oil and climate change have become defining global challenges that are bound to impact severely on both developing and industrialized nations. Nigeria is postulated to run out of its oil reserve by 2060; even as climate change is anticipated to take its toll within this timescale. These assertions, besides current sociopolitical circumstances of Nigeria, are generating concerns over the degree of preparedness of Nigeria in responding strategically to these looming crises. The objective of this study therefore, is to plan exploratory scenarios that highlight four plausible futures that might unfold for Nigeria by 2060. The overall aim is to uncover the large-scale influencing forces that are likely to drive these futures. The scenarios building process involved, brainstorming with strategic stakeholders of Nigerian energy industry; to debate over the future and determine the driving forces. These dynamic forces were streamlined into viable framework to form different storylines. The scenarios infer that peak oil and climate change is inevitable but the exact direction that the uncertainties would take Nigeria depends on how much Nigeria understands the present and prepares for the future. The overall conclusion is that since the imminent peak oil and climate change cannot be wished away, the only option for Nigeria is to chart the paths forward by exploring sustainable energy alternatives to oil and making strategic responses to climate change.