Jack Mhyre

The transport sector accounts for a quarter of global energy greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, not includingthe impact of manufacturingvehicles and infrastructure. This percentage will increase, pushed by growth in passenger and freight transport in the Global South,as populous countries develop their technologies and grow theireconomies.Clevertransport strategy can reduce emissions and grow local businesses. However, a disjointed and isolated view of transport precludessufficient planning.

Emissions due to transport are well documented, yet a holistic view of the passenger and freight transport sector is rarely considered. Measuring the impact of various transport strategies must includeanalysing the materialsand emissionsthat go into the constructionand operationof vehiclesand infrastructure. Uganda is used as a case study due toPresident Museveni’s push for an increase in self-reliance and local production.

To this end, a Python model was created and used to estimate the material needs for future transport projections and to predict the resulting GHGemissions. The created model focuses on the most ubiquitous and emissions-intensive materials and uses pedigree matrices with the Monte Carlo method to assign uncertainty to the data. The model illuminatesthe need forcertainmaterials and the effect of differentfuturetransport scenarioson the material requirements and GHGemissions. 

The model produced reveals the large contributionoffreighttransporttoward GHGemissions. Italso highlights the GHGmitigation potential of vehicle efficiency improvementsand modal shifts toward electric vehicles, public transport,and rail. These conclusionsguide policy recommendationsfor the Ugandan government and major stakeholders in the Ugandan transport sector. Local production of electric vehicles, especially electric two-wheelers, should be encouraged. The power sector needs to remain low carbon as it expands in order to allow electric vehicles to have a meaningful impact on emissions mitigation. Laws and importation taxes should be implemented to encourage efficient,low-emitting vehicles to dominate the market. The Ugandan rail system should be invested in, especially for freight transport coming from the Kenyan coast. Public transport should be encouraged with methods such aslimitations on personal vehicles in city centres and the subsidisation offares.