AbdulHameed Olayanju Raji

Towards Net-Zero in 2060: Pathway for the energy sector in Nigeria

The world is lagging behind its energy transition goals especially the three main targets for sustainable energy for all: energy access, renewable energy, and energy efficiency. This study takes account of this transition in Nigeria because it is one of the lowest emitters in the world and the largest economy in Africa. To achieve its 2060 net-zero targets, Nigeria’s energy transition will not be easy and must address Oil & Gas (a carbon-emitting source) dominating the economy with around 75% of the energy mix and 45% of the population that still lack access to energy.

This work investigated ‘to what extent can Nigeria meet its net-zero goals?” Three methods were employed to answer this question: interviews of six energy sector stakeholders, a critical review of five wide-reaching policies and envisioning scenarios of the energy mix for net-zero. The stakeholders interviewed were chosen in different capacities with varying experience levels to give insights into these policies and the necessary stakeholder synergies. The policies were reviewed to understand how they are positioned to contribute to the energy transformation. The respondents were asked to envision quantitative scenarios of several energy sources by 2060 based on their experience and development of these sources which lead to the development of a pathway (a series of actions for energy transition).

The results show a scenario with heavy reliance on four renewable energy sources (between 80 - 90% share) and gas which will be the energy mix for a low-carbon energy sector. Policies were found to be pivotal to energy transition but have been deemed inadequate so far with only two of the five policies positioned to contribute to net-zero goals with significant work required on the policy fronts. Stakeholders will need to build four key synergies to increase the chances of a successful energy transition: large-scale energy development and innovation, low-cost solutions, and flexible operating environments.

This study contributes to the field by identifying policies that need realignment with net-zero operations at all levels and how stakeholders can be more involved every step of the way. This recognizes the need to rapidly deploy renewable energy and decarbonize fossil fuels recommending the monitoring and evaluation of these energy sources and emissions.