Robert Paul Fennell

Adapting aviation: An enhanced risk assessment methodology incorporating climate projection data for the purpose of increasing airfield climate resilience

There is strong scientific consensus that climate change is increasing global exposure to more extreme weather events. In addition to being a significant contributor to climate change, aviation and airfields are particularly vulnerable to its negative effects. This research attempts to provide an enhanced risk assessment methodology for the aviation sector, conducted utilising the Royal Air Force (RAF) as a case study. Focussing on nine military airfield locations around the UK, the research will achieve its aims though the following means:

i. Conducting a literature review to determine the current climate risk assessment best practice, available adaptation options and climatic thresholds to inform steps ii-iv.

ii. Utilising Met Office UKCP18 climate projection data to identify the likelihood of various climatic events occurring at the selected airfield locations.

iii. Analysing the data against the climatic thresholds to determine the likelihood of those thresholds being exceeded.

iv. Assessing these threats using an improved climate risk assessment to help determine the risk and allow prioritisation of adaptation options.

This risk assessment methodology, utilising best practice from industry and academia, will allow the RAF to understand which climate threats are most significant at each of their main operating bases, and allow them to prioritise the most effective adaptation options. While this research is focussed on nine military airfields, it is designed to be able to be easily replicated across other locations.

The research has shown that the largest risk factors vary depending on the location of the airfield – for example RAF Benson will be thirty times more likely to breach the safe maximum temperature threshold than RAF Lossiemouth by 2080. However, while extreme heat events will increase significantly, the risk to airfields from extreme winds and sea level rise is expected to remain low. Precipitation is expected to become less frequent overall, but with a greater number of days classed as heavy rainfall, and the heaviest rain increasing in magnitude. Cold weather events are expected to decrease significantly, reducing the risk from these hazard types.