Martin Amethier

Food security under climate change: Assessing potential interventions to alleviate food insecurity in Kenya

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that ~30% of the global population is moderately or severely food insecure. Climate change is expected to impact food security through reduced crop yields, which in turn affects food prices and people’s ability to access food. Kenya depends on both internal production and imports to meet food demand. Therefore, Kenya is exposed to increased food insecurity due to reduced yields of internal crop production, which particularly affects the large share of the population working as subsistence farmers, as well as among its trade partners. This study projects the development of food security in Kenya using a probability function, quantifies the vulnerability of Kenya’s key food import partners to climate change, and reviews the literature on engineering solutions that aim to alleviate challenges.

The results indicate that Kenya’s Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU) could increase from ~25% today to ~46% in 2050 if the population continues to grow while food supply follows the trajectory of recent years. However, if the growth of food supply follows longer term trends of the last ten years, the PoU would be projected to fall to ~12%. Separate analysis suggests that the PoU could increase to ~43% due to climate change based solely on studies of global warming scenarios. The similarity between the population-based projection and climate change scenarios suggests that climate change is already impacting food yields, and that the country must invest resources in improving agricultural productivity. However, the main imported foods are resilient to the effects of climate change, due to the diversity and resilience of the source countries.

Policy should aim to maintain this diversity of food import sources to reduce Kenya’s exposure to the harmful effects of climate change through its food trade. Furthermore, the literature indicates that investments in increasing the level of mechanisation of smallholder agriculture in the country would improve crop productivity and reduce food insecurity. Such investments should be focused mainly on: (1) improving the accessibility of machinery, through improved training and agricultural extension services and a more comprehensive mechanisation supply chain; (2) encouraging the development of a self-sustaining private sector that drives forms of mechanisation that support smallholder farmers, such as smaller tractors or power tillers. A more comprehensive analysis of Kenya’s vulnerability through its food imports, using systems-based techniques such as agent-based modelling, would lend significant further insight to this topic.