Chibuzor Paul Ndubisi

A sustainability assessment framework for the energy transition: Nigeria as a case study

The global imperative to curb greenhouse gas emissions, founded upon the sustainable development mandate, is driving a transition from fossil-based energy systems to net-zero-carbon energy systems. To effectively undergo this transition, it is essential to balance the three pillars of the World Energy Trilemma Framework: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. However, some countries persistently underperform in all three areas, displaying serious deficiencies that impede energy sector transformation. Nigeria, being one of these ‘energy-fragile countries’, has begun a multifaceted energy transition process, propelled by an Energy Transition Plan (ETP) that targets a complete decarbonisation of the country’s energy system by 2060. This research thus attempted to develop a framework for assessing the level of sustainability present in Nigeria’s energy transition scheme.

The core research methodology involved three steps. First, a systematic review of literature was conducted to generate 60 indicators, which were synthesised through 21 criteria with the economic, infrastructural, financial, environmental, regulatory, political, and social dimensions of sustainability. This resulted in the Energy Transition Sustainability Assessment Framework (ENTSAF). Second, ENTSAF was applied to Nigeria’s energy transition context based on evidence from Nigeria’s policies, regulations, and strategies, with each indicator assigned a rating. Third, the relevance of ENTSAF was tested by comparing its indicators with the strategies recommended for Nigeria’s energy transition by 15 expert stakeholders.

The results showed that this broad coverage of sustainability was crucial to the recognition of pertinent contributors to a sustainable energy transition. No evidence of consideration was found for 21 indicators, and only 9 indicators received a rating above fair satisfaction. On the level of criteria, Nigeria’s top challenges were found to be with Resilience, Ecosystems, Nexuses, and Legislation. Additionally, based on their indicators, the criteria of Green Finance, Taxation, and Nexuses did not align with stakeholder recommendations. These findings facilitated an evaluation of ENTSAF’s appropriateness for energy-fragile countries, resulting in recommendations to enhance ENTSAF’s customisation, establish data management and feedback mechanisms, and uphold stakeholder engagement and knowledge sharing. ENTSAF is thus shown to be valuable for assessing, enabling, and directing sustainable energy transitions in energy-fragile countries.