Ryuta Kuniyoshi

A roadmap for introducing low carbon technology to fertiliser plants – How can we accelerate progress?

Food systems rely on nitrogen fertilisers to ensure agricultural productivity, while their production and use account for approximately 5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As global demand for nitrogen fertiliser continues to rise, mitigating these emissions while ensuring food security is imperative. Low-carbon technologies, such as electric heating with renewable energy, have been identified as effective solutions for decarbonisation. However, there is limited research on suitable mitigation strategies for specific countries despite region-specific factors influencing the feasibility and effectiveness of these technologies. This study addresses this gap by developing a region-specific roadmap for Japan.

This study employed a quantitative inventory analysis to assess current GHG emissions and estimate the potential reductions through adopting five currently available low-carbon technologies. Subsequently, this study conducted a qualitative analysis using the Carbon Lock-in framework, with data gathered from a literature review and interviews.

Results indicate that Japan’s nitrogen fertiliser consumption generates 4.5 Mt CO₂e annually, which is comparatively higher due to substantial imports from China and extensive use of NPK and NK compound fertilisers. However, these factors only have a limited influence, reinforcing the need for low-carbon technologies to accelerate decarbonisation. The subsequent scenario analysis revealed that the implementation of low-carbon technologies could reduce GHG emissions by up to 50%. While demand reduction strategies were found to be the most effective, their effectiveness may vary depending on assumptions regarding nitrogen use efficiency in cropland. Furthermore, the qualitative analysis using the Carbon Lock-in framework identified that demand reduction strategies possess the most minor barriers to adoption. To accelerate the adoption of demand reduction strategies, the study suggests establishing a technical support system and implementing a demonstration trial, both of which can be facilitated by the public sector in the industry.