Exploring the effectiveness of copper recycling in reducing anticipated UK demand for primary copper extraction
Copper is ubiquitous in modern industrialised society, and demand for copper in the future is expected to continue to rise with population growth. Furthermore, copper is essential for the energy transition, with intensive use in clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and electricity networks. However, declining ore-grades and the ‘global copper production peak’ risk the security and stability of the copper supply in the future.
The UK is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks given its reliance on imported copper but, as an economically developed nation that has already accumulated a significant stock of copper, it may be able to increase recycling rates to reduce its reliance on primary copper. This study used a dynamic material flow analysis combined with trade data analysis and elements of scenario analysis to estimate the UK’s current copper stock, the products it exists within, and when it is likely to become scrap. Estimates for future copper demand in the UK have also been generated to contextualise the effect of future recycling improvements.
The results confirm the expected large in-use copper stock with an estimated 211kg per capita of in-use copper as of 2021. However, even optimistic improvements in recycling efficiency will likely only be able to reduce the proportion of the demand growth that will require primary copper extraction, rather than yielding a lower primary copper demand overall. The results show that the UK exports most of its processed post-consumer copper scrap, indicating a likely capacity shortfall for the onshore copper recycling needed to secure a greater secondary copper supply. The results also show that changing consumption patterns of copper-containing products will be evident in the future scrap flows, which can be used to plan future waste management policies pertaining to copper scrap.
Investigating the UK in isolation, however, risks the abstraction of a global challenge to a national one. Marked shifts in global product design and material efficiency are required to increase copper circularity in the UK given its reliance on imported products. Furthermore, policy shifts in the UK must be considered carefully to avoid unintended consequences such as geopolitical tension that may be caused by drawing down scrap exports (which may affect the copper supply of other countries).