Lonwabo Thabiso Mgoduso

South Africa continues to rely on a coal-intensive energy system to drive employment and the growthof the economy.In light of the global climate crisis, this is no longer sustainabledue to coal’s substantial carbon emissions.The rising concerns around energy security, coupled with the urgency of climate change mitigation, pose significant challengestothe country’s electricitysector.This research focuseson South Africa’s current electricity generation system. It investigates the opportunities, implications and barriers for renewable energy (RE) in response to climate change.Through a systemsthinking (ST) approach,this dissertation develops critical intervention strategiestofacilitate ajustand fairtransition away from coal.Finally, ahigh-level Theory of Change(ToC)framework consolidatesresearch outcomes and maps out a transition pathway.

The review of literature focuseson the context of South Africa’s electricity supply and its historical efforts to shift towards low-carbon technologies. It highlightsthat over the past decade, South Africahas continued to fall short of its mitigation commitments due to poor policy implementationas aresult of political interference. Additionally, there have been rolling blackouts across the country due to financial and operational challenges experienced by the state-owned energy utility, Eskom. The literaturehighlights the existing drivers and barriers for RE and suggests cost-effective mitigationpathways. It also presents the economic and political cases forRE in South Africa, rooted in a ‘justtransition’ from coal.

A systems analysis based on semi-structured interviews with key stakeholdersindicates the socio-economic complexities of a low-carbon transition, such astheresultant job losses, destruction of miningcommunities, and lack of consensus-building between stakeholders and government institutions. Visualisingthe system through a causal-loop diagram,leveraging points within the systemareidentified. Eleven intervention strategiesaredeveloped to drive theadvancement of RE and a possible just transition. The critical actions proposed include(i)unbundlingEskom’s monopolyinto separate generation, transmission and distribution entities; (ii) establishinga freemarket witha diverse set ofindependentsellersto increaseRE capacityand dynamism in the sector;and (iii) developinga Just TransitionPlanthat addresses thehuman and environmentalimpacts.In summation, this dissertationidentifiesopportunities for future inter-sectoral coordination,guided by theST approachof this research,toinform a successfuland just transition towards a new green economyin South Africathat benefits all.