Emily Charlotte Liberty Cullen

Navigating Ireland’s offshore future

Ireland is aiming for 37 gigawatts of offshore renewable energy (ORE) by 2050. Opportunities and challenges do exist for these high-cost, high-risk and technologically advanced offshore developments. However, consideration for long-term hazards and resilience is lacking, especially in changing climates (environmental, political and socioeconomic). This research identifies the main hazards impacting the resilience of the offshore renewable industry over the next 30 years, encompassing the whole life cycle of these developments. It also offers recommendations which go some way in addressing the issues and limitations.

The methodology triangulates distinct qualitative analyses including literature analysis, nineteen interviews, survey ranking and network analysis via causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore resilience-impeding hazards and their repercussions within the ORE industry. The CLD identifies leverage points in the system via feedback loops and betweenness centrality. The study reveals hazards including social opposition, climate change, supply chain vulnerabilities, and grid and infrastructure limitations as central to the network's stability and resilience. Other common concerns include geopolitical and political uncertainties, particularly the relationship with and dependency on foreign nations such as China. By critically appraising the Irish ORE sector’s resilience using the Energy Resilience Framework developed by Arup, several gaps have been identified. These include Sustainable Financial Systems, Whole System Thinking Across the Supply Chain, Effective Infrastructure Management and Understanding Infrastructure Criticality. The triangulation of findings provides a solid foundation for resilience and future planning of offshore renewable energy.

The targeted recommendations derived from this research can be applied to policy, regulation and planning to enhance resilience. These include stakeholder workshops, multi-faceted auction design, supply chain planning, (cyber)security measures and consigning a multidisciplinary team to specifically manage resilience for offshore renewables. This means that ORE can contribute more effectively to Ireland’s decarbonisation strategy in the long-term. Furthermore, the approach and findings from this study apply beyond the case of Ireland to a broader context of global offshore renewable energy.