Aekim Louise Latayan Garcia

A global analysis of perception, risk and resilience towards disasters

The current understanding of the distribution of hazards and human vulnerabilities is well-documented. However, there is a need for a global and developing countries’ perspective on disaster risk perception (Buchenrieder, Brandl and Balgah, 2021; Kieu and Senanayake, 2023) and an understanding of cultural contextual factors on risk perception (Lechowska, 2018). This is important, as risk perceptions drive how societies prepare for and respond to disasters. These gaps pose challenges in understanding perception and creating systems such as policies, financial/investment/insurance systems, planning, and risk management that factor in risk perception (UNDRR, 2022a). This dissertation delves into the relationship between risk perception, disaster risk, and resilience at a global scale, utilising three comprehensive datasets from the World Risk Poll (The Lloyd’s Register Foundation, 2021b), INFORM Risk (DRMKC, 2024b) and disaster database EM-DAT (CRED, 2024). The methodology used in this dissertation includes a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods involving literature review, exploratory analysis, case studies, and statistical modelling, such as correlation, chi-squared test and regression-based methods, to identify the relationship between disaster risk, resilience, and risk perception and determine factors for perception and resilience. The research seeks to analyse discrepancies between perceived risk and actual risk, shedding light on the disproportionate impact of disasters on various regions and socio-economic groups, with a particular focus on Priority 1 of the Sendai Framework: understanding risk (UNDRR, 2023). Notably, the research identifies no correlation between perceived risk and actual hazard and exposure but a moderate one between perceived risk and actual risk (physical hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity) globally, but these relationships vary regionally. Additionally, the research reveals countries with a perception and resilience gap, and the relationship of socio-economic and sociodemographic factors on risk perception and resilience. Case studies in the Philippines and Pakistan offer insights into cultural contextual elements and their impact on risk perception and resilience levels. Furthermore, disaster risk management strategies were discussed. The findings underscore the importance of integrating perception in efforts to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerabilities with an emphasis on the need for targeted interventions, policies, and resilience-building efforts tailored to distinct regional and cultural contexts while highlighting avenues for future research to advance disaster risk reduction strategies further.