Kilian Jamal Bashayan

From wheels to grid: Configuring value-chains in German Vehicle-to-Grid business models

This study examines how German fleet managers decide on participation in Vehicle-to-Grid programmes under technological uncertainty, economic incentives, and behavioural risk perceptions. An overarching research question is specified through three sub-questions on systemic feedback, decision logics, and intervention thresholds.

Methodologically, it integrates a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), ten semi-structured interviews with decision-makers from heavy-duty fleets, and an agent-based model (ABM) that analyses parameter combinations, such as Trust × Incentive, and visualises tipping points.

The CLD shows two reinforcing loops (Policy–Fleet–Clarity, Fleet–Policy–Incentives) and one balancing loop (Concern–Dropout). Institutional clarity strengthens trust, while degradation concerns hinder adoption. In the decision logic, trust functions as a multiplicative risk dampener, and predictability outweighs maximum return. Interviews reveal four recurring tension fields (e.g. Predictability vs. Value Uncertainty, Battery Degradation vs. Savings), that manifest as thresholds in the ABM.

One-sided monetary incentives are insufficient. Effective strategies prioritise regulatory clarity (governance, grid codes, contract standards), telemetry-supported degradation guarantees, and predictable remuneration models before scaling incentive intensities. This targets deep leverage points of shifting mindsets, rules, and information.

The study positions trust as a meta-complementarity for technological, economic, and organisational complementarities, formalises it as a risk dampener, and establishes a methodological bridge translating qualitative data into ABM-based policy threshold heuristics.