Bryan Jevoncia

The perils of mega protection infrastructure: Rethinking governance and sustainable development for coastal resilience in Jakarta

This research examines the iron law of megaprojects - over budget, over time, under-delivered -through the case of the US$40 billion National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) in Jakarta. Introduced to counter land subsidence (averaging 7.5 cm/year), the project relies on public-private partnerships (PPP) and split into three phases. The first phase, due in 2016, has only seen partial progress since its inception in 2014. Despite perpetual public contestations, the project is still planned to expand dramatically.

130 grey literature (2014-2025) were analysed using a temporal thematic analysis to understand this persistence. Additionally, five elite interviews were conducted with a diverse set of stakeholders including Indonesian government officials, project-affiliated academic, Dutch consultant, and NGO. The result shows narrative shifts from early technological sublime, to emerging public contestation, circling back to technocratic inertia. A causal-loop diagram (CLD) identified project financing reform as a potential leverage point considering its susceptibility to change compared to other politically entrenched factors.

This study cautions policymakers against what Flyvbjerg (2009) terms as the survival of the unfittest (inverted Darwinism of infrastructure) and extends to offer pathways for navigating the aftermath of infrastructural lock-in through more accountable financing mechanisms.