Favour Kaitochukwu Chukwudi

Financing Nigeria’s cooling needs: The impact of cooling degree days (CDDs) on renewable energy investment

Nigeria faces escalating cooling demands as temperatures rise, with Cooling Degree Days increasing from 5,888°F in 1990 to 6,326°F in 2023. Despite this climate urgency, over 53% of Nigeria's population lacks access to adequate cooling, creating severe public health and economic risks. This research quantifies Nigeria's sustainable cooling financing requirements through 2050 using integrated climate and financial modelling. Time series analysis using ARIMA modelling projects cooling demand growth from 630,000 units in 2022 to 1.33 million units by 2050, a 107% increase. Technology adoption analysis revealed that Nigeria operates as a constrained market where high cooling needs do not translate into rapid uptake due to affordability barriers and infrastructure limitations. Also, investment modelling projects that Nigeria requires $32.6 billion in cumulative cooling infrastructure investment by 2050, with annual needs escalating from $488 million in 2025 to $2.0 billion by 2050. The analysis identifies critical policy interventions across regulatory frameworks, institutional capacity building, and market development strategies. The project has provided insight into examining the cooling finance gap in Nigeria, not only in terms of figures but also to comprehend the overall market dynamics, that is, how demand-driven growth compares with the restraints that undermine adoption. These findings can actually guide policymakers and climate financing institutions in designing more targeted policies that integrate energy efficiency, renewable energy, and health concerns. These approaches could also be considered in other regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, providing a viable model for addressing similar issues in the area.