Kefan Liu

Sustainable lithium resource management through Material Flow Analysis: Scenario-based assessment of China’s recycling policies for spent EV batteries

The growing deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) in China is driving a parallel surge in spent lithium-ion batteries (PLIBs), which posing both critical resource bottlenecks and environmental risks. However, the overall recovery rate of lithium is lower comparing to other developed countries. To address this problem, a comprehensive understanding of recycling chain is necessary. This study develops a Material Flow Analysis (MFA) model to analysis the lithium flow associated with Li resource of EV batteries in China from 2010 to 2035. Firstly, based on the annual EV sales data and vehicle parameters, annual battery retirement and potential lithium recovery can be estimated by Weibull distribution model. Secondly, a series of scenarios are constructed based on the results of the game-theoretic analysis. MFA reveal that effective lithium recovery is low nowadays. In contrast, scenarios with supervised and financial incentives could achieve over 70% lithium recovery. Through analyzing these scenarios, the study recommends a scenario which has higher recycling efficiency. Lastly, based on the analysis of MFA results, some specific recommendations are proposed. Future research could incorporate spatial-temporal dynamics, cost-benefit analysis, and behavioral factors to develop a more comprehensive and detailed analysis for lithium cycling in China.